Comparison of a new prognostic system and other three current staging systems in predicting the survival rate of patients with HBV-associated advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

347 Background: HBV infection is one of the main reasons for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Patients with advanced HBV-associated HCC have poor prognosis. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. Prediction of 3-month OS and OS survival rate of advanced HCC patients is very important. A new prognostic system called PS-JIS system (proposed Performance Status combined Japan Integrated Staging system, variables and risk classification criteria are listed below) was established in 2015 and now we want to compare this new prognostic system and other three current staging systems in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced HBV-associated HCC. Methods: From September 2008 to June 2010, 220 patients with advanced HCC who didn’t receive anti-cancer therapy recommended by NCCN guidelines were analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to CLIP (Cancer of the Liver Italian Program), PS-JIS, GETCH(Groupe d’étude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire) and TNM staging system at diagnosis. OS and 3-month OS were the end points used in the analysis. Results: When predicting 3-month survival, ROC analysis show AUC of CLIP, PS-JIS, GETCH and TNM is 0.806, 0.761, 0.654 and 0.643. AUC of CLIP and PS-JIS is similar (P=0.1174), both significantly higher than the other two staging system (P<0.01). When predicting overall survival, likelihood ratio test show χ2 of CLIP, PS-JIS, GETCH and TNM is 74.00, 39.71, 23.09, 21.40. AIC of CLIP, PS-JIS, GETCH and TNM is 1601.46, 1635.80, 1655.06, 1654.77. The CLIP system has best performance in terms of discriminatory ability, homogeneity and monotonicity. Conclusions: The PS-JIS and CLIP systems were both the best score system in prediction of 3-month OS among the 4 systems and CLIP was still the best to predict OS analyzed for Chinese advanced HBV-associated HCC patients. [Table: see text]