Comparison of 1-year vs 2-year change in regional cartilage thickness in osteoarthritis results from 346 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Abstract

To compare femorotibial cartilage thickness changes over a 2- vs a 1-year observation period in knees with radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). One knee of 346 Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) participants was studied at three time points [baseline (BL), year-1 (Y1), year-2 (Y2) follow-up]: 239 using coronal fast low angle shot (FLASH) and 107 using sagittal double echo at steady state (DESS) MR imaging. Changes in cartilage thickness were assessed in femorotibial cartilage plates and subregions, after manual segmentation with blinding to time-point. The standardized response mean (SRM) of total joint cartilage thickness over 2 years was modestly higher than over 1 year (FLASH: -0.44 vs -0.32/-0.28 [first/second year]; DESS: -0.42 vs -0.39/-0.18). For the subregion showing the largest change per knee (OV1), the 2-year SRM was similar or lower (FLASH: -1.20 vs -1.22/-1.61; DESS: -1.38 vs -1.64/-1.51) than the 1-year SRM. The changes in total joint cartilage thickness were not significantly different in the first and second year (FLASH: -0.8% vs -0.7%; DESS: -1.3% vs -0.8%) and were negatively correlated. Analysis of smallest detectable changes (SDCs) revealed that only few participants displayed significant progression in both consecutive periods. The location of the subregion contributing to OV1 in each knee was highly inconsistent between the first and second year observation period. The SRM of region-based cartilage thickness change in OA is modestly larger following a 2-year vs a 1-year observation period, while it is relatively similar when an OV-approach is chosen. Structural progression displays strong temporal and spatial heterogeneity at an individual knee level that should be considered when planning clinical trials.