Comparison Between UKMtrapcast and SPENVIS in Forecasting Distribution of High Energy Protons in the SAA Region

Abstract

The distribution of high energy particles in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region was examined. This study attempted to compare the results between UKMtrapcast and the Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) in forecasting the distribution of high energy protons in the SAA during severe and quiet periods. Results showed that the accuracy of UKMtrapcast was around 80–90%. The maps of UKMtrapcast also indicated that during the quiet period, the flux value tended to increase and vice versa, and this phenomenon was in line with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observations. In other words, the UKMtrapcast could perform dynamic forecasting. On the other hand, the results of SPENVIS showed a similar pattern for all particles in all periods with an inappropriate position of SAA core. These findings indicated a positive contribution opportunity for UKMtrapcast to study the Earth’s space radiation particles.