Abstract
This paper compares the PPC model to a Markov Chain (MC) stochastic deterioration model. First, inspection data from the Société de Transport de Montréal (STM) is gathered and analyzed. Then Transition Probability Matrices (TPM) are developed, and, using Matlab, MC deterioration curves are developed. Comparison between MC and the PPC deterioration curves is performed for subway station walls and slabs. The comparison has shown that the useful service life can be as low as 2 years for components having many inspection history records, and very high as 30 years for components having very few inspection history records. The PPC model has always a higher useful service life estimate. Also, the MC has a ten times higher deterioration rate (0.2 per year) compared to the PPC model (0.02 per year). It can be concluded that the MC deterioration model requires a high amount of inspection data, and it is mathematically difficult to generate since most practicing managers and engineers have no background in Markov Chain modeling.
Highlights
Public transit contributes substantially to the quality of life enjoyed by citizens
The Predicted Performance Curve (PPC) model is based on a structural component assessment index model which was developed by Semaan and Zayed (2014) [2]
The Structures Markov Chain Deterioration Model’ (SSMCD) model has been applied to the Société de Transport de Montréal (STM) stations
Summary
Public transit contributes substantially to the quality of life enjoyed by citizens. continuously growing, symptoms of aging transit infrastructure and overdue maintenance are becoming a burden to municipalities and governments. Managers and researchers are faced with difficulties when modeling subway structures components deterioration using Markov Chain These difficulties are listed as follows: (i) difficulty of data collection, (ii) difficulty in translation of physical conditions to mathematical problems, and (iii) the Markov Chain is a memory less model, i.e. the Markov Chain model cannot show the states before the studied period and the current state is independent of its history. The objective of this research project is to study the structural performance curve of a subway component using a Markov Chain model and compare it to an existing Predicted Performance Curve (PPC) developed by Semaan [4]
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