Abstract
According to the importance of climate change, the necessity of develop a fast and accurate tool is undeniable. Although the comparison of a statistical model with specialized models which were designed regard to non-linear complexities of a phenomenon is not common, in this study ARIMA statistical model was analyzed and evaluated with GFDL CM2.1 and CGM3 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) in order to investigate on the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation in the Taleghan basin. The results showed although GFDL CM2.1 model showed better performance in MAE and R2 validation criteria and the predicted temperature had similar trend with the observational data, the difference between the model results and observations is significant. The CGM 3 model showed better performance in R2 for precipitation, temperature and MAE for long term average of precipitation in addition to having similar trend to the observed data. However, for long term average of both temperature and precipitation, the general predicted trend had a considerable distance with the observational values. In contrast, although the statistical ARIMA model predictions had some fluctuations, they had better conformity to the general trend of observations. These results show that contrary to popular belief, in some cases like this investigated case, even cheap statistical models can likely provide acceptable results.
Highlights
The Earth climate is consisted of four components of the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere
Comparison of obtained results of predictions which were done by using R2, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) validation criterion of temperature and precipitation shows that while both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and CGM3 show favorable results based on R2 criterion, according to this criterion ARIMA model is not able to predict precipitation precisely
In terms of MAE criterion, there is no significant difference in the rainfall data, ARIMA model has presented better performance about temperature parameter
Summary
The Earth climate is consisted of four components of the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere. American Journal of Water Resources temperature and oceans due to increase in greenhouse gases as the most important factor in climate change. Global warming of the Earth caused two important phenomena in recent century: increase in average global temperature and increase in sea level while even small changes in hydrological variables can lead to considerable changes in water resources, climate change has a considerable influence on precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff in regional and local scales [3]. Comparison of a statistical tool with specialized model which was originally designed with respect to the non-linear complexity of the a phenomenon is uncommon, in this research ARIMA statistical model was analyzed and evaluated with two Oceanic- atmosphere General Circulation Model of GFDL CM2.1 and CGM3 in order to investigate the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation in the Taleghan basin. The output of these models is accessible from Data Distribution Center (DDC) that was created based on the recommendation of the Working Group on Climate Impact Assessment in 1998
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