Comparison Between Maximum Annual and Peak Over Threshold Methods for the Determination of Extreme Waves in Moroccan Atlantic Coast

Abstract

In this article, we present a study that focuses on forecasting the one hundred-years return period waves height using two methods; i) Peak Over Threshold (POT) and ii) Annual Maxima (MA). The analysis is carried out at three points at the Atlantic coast of northern Morocco. The results obtained by these two methods indicate a difference of less than 10 % and have shown that to ensure safe dimensioning of maritime structures, the application of the two statistical methods is necessary. This is explained by the drawbacks encountered in both methods. In the MA method, the inconvenience is linked to the choice of non-extreme events when no significant storm is recorded during one year, furthermore, the non-consideration of important events recorded in other year. In the second method (POT), the difficulty consists in the uncertainty of the calculations by the POT method due to the mistrust associated with the choice of the censoring threshold.