Abstract
How well cardiovascular risk models perform in selected atherosclerosis patients for predicting outcomes is unknown. We sought to compare the performance of cardiovascular risk models (Framingham, Globorisk, SCORE2 & SCORE2-OP, and an updated new model) in predicting the 4-year outcome of patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients with suspected CAD who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) were recruited. Obstructive CAD was defined from CCTA as ≥ 50% stenosis. Computed tomography images, the scores of the cardiovascular risk models, and 4-year composite endpoints were assessed. Whether the patients underwent revascularization within 60 days after CCTA was also recorded. Multivariate regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis were performed. A total of 95 patients (mean age: 69.5 ± 10.33 years; 69 males) with obstructive CAD were included in this study. After the ROC analysis, the Framingham, Globorisk, SCORE2 & SCORE2-OP risk score showed prediction values with AUC 0.628 (95% CI: 0.532-0.725), 0.647 (95% CI: 0.542-0.742), 0.684 (95% CI: 0.581-0.776), respectively. Multivariate regression analysis showed that, among the three risk models, only SCORE2 & SCORE2-OP risk score was associated with composite endpoints (hazard ratio: 1.050; 95% CI: 1.021-1.079; p = 0.001) after adjusting for confounding factors. The AUC of the new risk model by combing SCORE2 & SCORE2-OP risk score with revascularization and the number of obstructive vessels in predicting composite endpoints reached 0.898 (95% CI: 0.819-0.951). The SCORE2 & SCORE2-OP risk score combined with the number of obstructive vessels and revascularization is predictive for adverse outcomes in patients with obstructive CAD.
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