Comparison and Integrated Application for Runoff Simulation Models in Small and Medium-Sized River Basins of Southeast China Coastal Area

Abstract

Runoff simulation is of fundamental importance for hydrological research. This study evaluated the applicability of multiple hydrological models and their ensembles for simulating runoff in small and medium-sized river basins of southeastern coastal China, focusing on the Xixi tributary of Jinjiang River and the Songxi and Chongyang tributaries of Minjiang River in Fujian Province. Four lumped hydrological models were selected for analysis: GR4J, IHACRES, TVGM, and MISDc-2L. The Bayesian model averaging method was utilized to compare the performance of each individual model and the multi-model ensemble in runoff simulation. Results: (1) For the calibration and validation periods of four hydrological stations, the mean values of KGE, NS, and R2 for the models GR4J, IHACRES, TVGM, and MISDc-2L were all above 0.7, and the mean values of |RE| were below 8.3%, without significant simulation accuracy variations when basin size changes, demonstrating strong regional applicability for runoff simulation; (2) The multi-model ensemble simulations using Bayesian model averaging of GR4J, TVGM, and MISDc-2L exhibited higher accuracy than individual models; (3) The MISDc-2L model demonstrated strong applicability in daily runoff simulations for both small and medium-sized river basins in Fujian Province and the large-sized Dongting Lake basin, showing that it is worthy of further application in other river basins across China. The findings of this study provide a reference for the selection and application of hydrological models for runoff simulation in small and medium-sized river basins of southeastern coastal China.