Abstract
The life of an aero-engine component is predicted using two different analysis methods with completely different input data. The results is first compared and then combined by Bayesian updating. Due to the high safety demands on aircraft engines in operation, it is important to have reliable life prediction methods for the engine components. Traditionally, two alternative methods to determine the maximum allowable time in service for a component are used. The first is a deterministic life prediction, based on material strength and fracture mechanics. If either inservice experience or results from rig tests exist, the second method is statistical analysis of the historical data. Ongoing work at further improving the quality of life predictions at Volvo Aero has adopted a process view of the work aimed in predicting the life of a turbine engine component. The main activities considered in this process are 1. Model Generation, 2. Load analysis, 3. Material data Generation, 4. Temperature calculation, 5. Stress calculation, 6. Crack initiation calculation, 7. Crack propagation calculation, and finally 8. Assessment and risk analysis.
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