Comparing water related indicators and comprehensively evaluating cropping systems and irrigation strategies in the North China Plain for sustainable production

Abstract

The fully irrigated winter wheat–summer maize double cropping system (DWM) has caused groundwater overexploitation and aggravated water scarcity in the North China Plain (NCP). Therefore, it is necessary to select alternative cropping systems with effective irrigation strategies to maintain the sustainable use of groundwater and maintain crop productivity. However, the evaluation indicators, especially the water-related indicators of cropping systems and irrigation strategies in current studies are not consistent and it is difficult to obtain a comprehensive evaluation result. Hence, to overcome these challenges, this study reviewed and compared groundwater indicators, water use indicators, water production performance indicators and output indicators, and summarized twelve evaluation combinations. Four evaluation combinations with grain yield as output indicator were selected to comprehensively evaluate the cropping systems and irrigation strategies developed by Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) at a typical site in the NCP in the past 52 years. The indicator weights were determined by analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method, random forest algorithm and principal component analysis. Evaluation results showed that when the main goal was to guarantee food safety or improve the beneficial water use, the DWM was selected as the best choice and the WMM (winter wheat–summer maize → spring maize system, three crops in two years) was the alternative cropping system. Under this condition, water saving irrigation should be vigorously developed to reduce groundwater exploitation. When the four indicator types had the same weight, the DWM under rainfed was the best choice to improve evapotranspiration use efficiency and precipitation use efficiency; the monocropping spring maize system under normal irrigation strategy was the best choice to reduce water footprint. The WMM under rainfed was the alternative choice to improve evapotranspiration use efficiency, improve precipitation use efficiency and reduce water footprint. The evaluation methods proposed in this study could be used as reference in the comparison of cropping systems and irrigation strategies in other water-related situations.