Comparing three methods to form regions for design rainfall statistics: Two case studies in Australia

Abstract

One of the fundamental steps in regional rainfall frequency analysis is deciding the method by which rainfall stations are to be grouped together to form regions. This paper compares three methods of forming regions for use in estimating design rainfalls: a fixed region approach where all the available sites are included in a single region, a Region of Influence (ROI) approach based on geographical proximity and a hybrid approach where sites with similar topographic orientations are grouped together. The three region types were implemented in a Bayesian Generalized Least Squares Regression (BGLSR) framework which leads to regionalized regression equations that can be used to predict rainfall L-moments at ungauged sites. A leave-one-out cross validation approach was used to compare the relative accuracy, reliability and uncertainty of the derived rainfall statistics and resulting estimates of the rainfall quantiles. The study used data from two areas of Australia chosen for their highly varied topography and different climatic influences. It was found that all three methods provided good estimates of the L-moment statistics and the rainfall quantiles. The hybrid approach produced the smallest errors in the South-East Queensland region whilst for the Tasmanian region the fixed region approach was best. The results from this study show that although there is a slight benefit in using the proposed hybrid approach for BGLSR, these benefits were minor compared to maximizing the number of stations used to calibrate the BGLSR equations. This conclusion regarding the number of stations could be tested in future work by repeating the analyses in areas with sparser station density. Another test could be to simulate reduced station coverage in the current study areas by leaving stations out of the analyses. Finally it would be interesting to see if similar results are obtained by expanding the study area so that different climatological regimes are assessed.