Comparing the performance of three data-weighting methods when allowing for time-varying selectivity

Abstract

How to properly weight composition data is an important ongoing research topic for fisheries stock assessments, and multiple methods for weighting composition data have been developed. Although several studies indicated that properly accounting for time-varying selectivity can reduce estimation biases in population biomass and management-related quantities, no study to date has compared the performance of widely used data-weighting methods when allowing for time-varying selectivity. Here, we conducted four simulation experiments on this topic, aiming to provide guidance on weighting age-composition data given time-varying selectivity. The first simulation experiment showed that over-weighting should be avoided in general and even when estimating time-varying selectivity. The second simulation experiment compared three data-weighting methods (McAllister–Ianelli, Francis, and Dirichlet-multinomial), within which the Dirichlet-multinomial method outperformed the other two methods when selectivity is time-varying. The third and fourth simulation experiments further showed that given time-varying selectivity, the Dirichlet-multinomial method still performed well when age-composition data were over-dispersed and when the level of selectivity variation needed to be simultaneously estimated. Our simulation results support using the Dirichlet-multinomial method when estimating time-varying fishery selectivity. Also, the simulations suggest that improving stock assessments by accounting for time-varying selectivity requires simultaneously addressing data weighting and time-varying selectivity.