Comparing the Performance of Developed and Emerging Market Equities during Economic Downturns

Abstract

Purpose: This study compares developed and developing market stocks during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, a time of high geopolitical tensions. Economic downturns are complicated by geopolitical, financial, and natural disasters. A relevant case study to analyze equities market divergence under geopolitical uncertainty.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: This research quantifies stock market indexes, daily returns, and volatility indicators using historical financial data. Performance indicators, volatility patterns, and risk-return characteristics are compared across established and developing market stocks. The analysis seeks to determine if geopolitical tensions during the war increased market volatility and to understand market segment reactions. The analysis uses cumulative returns, average returns, standard deviations, volatility indexes, and the Sharpe ratio.
 Findings: It is found that clear geopolitical tensions during the crisis affected market volatility differently in established and new economies. This is because industrialized economies are financially stronger than developing ones. The Sharpe ratio allowed detailed market sector comparisons of risk-adjusted returns. This comparison showed investors' possible trade-offs between rewards and dangers.
 Implications/Originality/Value: These findings affect investors seeking educated strategies, politicians creating effective actions, and market participants managing risks. This research improves decision-making and risk management amid economic volatility by evaluating geopolitical events and stock market behaviors.