Abstract
Switching energy demand for transport from liquid fuels to electricity is the most promising way to significantly improve air quality and reduce transport emissions. Previous studies have shown this is possible, that by 2035 the economics of alternative powertrain and energy vectors will have converged. However, they do not address whether the transition is likely or plausible. Using the UK as a case study, we present a systems dynamics model based study informed by transition theory and explore the effects of technology progress, policy-making, user preferences and; for the first time, automated vehicles on this transition. We are not trying to predict the future but to highlight what is necessary in order for different scenarios to become more or less likely. Worryingly we show that current policies with the expected technology progress and expectations of vehicle buyers are insufficient to reach global targets. Faster technology progress, strong financial incentives or a change in vehicle buyer expectations are crucial but still insufficient. In contrast, the biggest switch to alternatively fuelled vehicles could be achieved by the introduction of automated vehicles. The implications will affect policy makers, automotive manufactures, technology developers and broader society.
Highlights
In order to keep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below the target of 450 ppm of CO2-equivalent in the atmosphere by 2050, it is necessary to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50% relative to 2050
This study builds upon previous work and combines the insight from socio-technical studies that provide an understanding of general barriers [10,11,15,16,17] with the quantitative [19,20,22,25] to include feedbacks and the rate of technology progress, different policies for the transition to electric mobility in industrialized countries, the effects of different user expectations and a possible uptake of Automated vehicles—and compares these
The model is used to explore faster technology progress, changing consumer preferences, different policies and the effect of automated vehicles on the uptake of electric vehicles. These scenarios are compared to a business-as-usual control scenario with assumptions simulating the present-day situation as closely as possible. This goes greatly beyond recent studies that have discussed the impact of autonomous vehicles on GHG emissions only and did not consider the impact on the likelihood of the transition [24,27]
Summary
In order to keep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below the target of 450 ppm of CO2-equivalent in the atmosphere by 2050, it is necessary to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50% relative to 2050. To compensate for sectors of the economy where this is too difficult such as aviation and construction, it is likely that road transport will have to reduce GHG emissions by 95% or more [2]. This is only possible with an almost complete move to electricity [1,3]. This electrification depends on the success of a range of technologies such as plug-in hybrid (PHEVs), battery electric (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs). All these technologies are likely to be needed in a future road transport system, each playing a different role [1,4,5,6]
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