Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

O.Y Edelenbosch,K Kermeli,W Crijns-Graus,E Worrell,R Bibas,B Fais,S Fujimori,P Kyle,F Sano,D.P Van Vuuren

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.017

Abstract

The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modeled sectors' mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show in the short term similar trends in a baseline scenario, where industrial energy demand increases steadily, after 2050 energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203 and 451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010–2050 period this is offset by economic growth.The ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions differs across models with technologically detailed models being less flexible in switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding economy-wide mitigation responses and costs and is therefore an area for improvements. By looking at the cement sector in more detail, we show that analyzing each industrial sub-sector separately can improve the interpretation and accuracy of outcomes, and provide insights in the feasibility of GHG abatement.

Highlights

In 2010, the industry sector was responsible for 37% of total global final energy consumption and emitted more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other sector1 [1,2]
The industrial sector representation in long-term energy models has revealed some striking similarities in the projected energy use pathways
Energy intensity (w.r.t GDP) in Non-OECD regions is projected to decrease more rapidly over the coming century than the one observed in recent decades with annual reduction rates varying between 1.8 and 2.2%, compared to average annual reduction of 0.6% between 1970 and 2010, which is a clear trend break

Summary

Introduction

In 2010, the industry sector was responsible for 37% of total global final energy consumption and emitted more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than any other sector1 [1,2]. While energy intensity of the industry sector mostly decreased in recent years (due to the adoption of energy and material efficiency measures), total energy use still increased as a result of production growth and a shift towards more energy intensive industrial products [3]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that industrial energy use would continue to increase, approximately doubling in 2050 compared to the consumption of 126 EJ2 in 2009, under the assumption of a continuation of current trends. This would lead to an increase of industrial CO2 emissions by 45e65% [4]. Effective climate policy would require steep emission reductions in the industry sector to reach stringent climate targets [2].

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