Comparing Predictors of Women's Congressional Election Success

Abstract

Examining all Congressional races from 1992 through 2000, we explore why, over time, some districts are more likely to have women candidates and to elect women than are others. We focus on the obvious, but rarely explored, fact that women's election success is a product of three key stages of the election process: women running, women's successes in the primaries, and finally, women's general election successes. We find that different factors predict success at each stage and that the predictors of women's candidacies and success in open seat races are different than in others.