Abstract
Individuals are more optimistic about their own future than a comparable person’s future (personal optimism bias). In addition, they show overoptimism toward people or social groups they identify with compared with those they do not identify with (social optimism bias). However, commonalities and differences between personal and social forms of optimism bias remain to be addressed. Data from an experiment on anticipated performances in soccer (including 160 participants), revealed (a) comparable magnitudes of personal and social optimism biases, and (b) only partial overlap between personal and social optimism biases. We further found the magnitude of the biases to depend on (c) prior experience in the investigated area. Social optimism bias, however, did not correlate with (d) the extent to which the participants identified with a social in-group. In addition, we demonstrate that (e) despite the availability of objective feedback, both personal and social optimism biases are hard to overcome. Our data further suggest (f) the existence of qualitatively different social optimism biases; biases that can possibly be distinguished by their degree of automaticity or the adoption of a more affective vs. utilitarian stance. Consequently, the present research reveals that the phenomenon of social optimism bias needs further refinement to adequately address its specific sub-components.
Highlights
Individuals are more optimistic about their own future than a comparable person’s future
Social optimism bias can be divided into subtypes that vary in terms of relevance to the individual
The results showed that both random slopes of Relevance and Character Valence were significant for the random effects variable Participants (LRT (4) = 157.60 and likelihood ratio test (LRT) (7) = 150.59, respectively, both ps < 0.001), indicating that the effects varied considerably across participants and this variation should be considered in the model
Summary
Individuals are more optimistic about their own future than a comparable person’s future (personal optimism bias). While most of the time advantageous, optimistic human expectancies often surpass the level justified by a rational consideration of the information at hand (Weinstein, 1980; Windschitl and Stuart, 2015): When asked about their future, most people are overly optimistic—with the probability of desirable future events (e.g., having success in one’s job) being overestimated and the probability of undesirable future events (e.g., incurring cancer) being underestimated This phenomenon has been termed optimism bias (alternatively: unrealistic optimism, comparative optimism, wishful thinking, or desirability bias; e.g., Dricu et al, 2020; Krizan and Windschitl, 2007) and describes irrational confidence in desirable outcomes (e.g., Hollander, 2004; Lench and Ditto, 2008; McGuire, 1960; Weinstein, 1980). An individual may be over optimistic for others (e.g., favorite international soccer team) whose performance is only abstractly relevant to the individual because their performance will not impact his or her personal future (abstract social optimism bias)
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