Comparing future climatic suitability to shoreline loss for recreational beach use: a case study of five Japanese beaches

Abstract

Coastal tourism is impacted by regional environmental change, including sea-level rise and climatic change. A case study at five Japanese beaches was conducted to determine the relative difference in coastal and climatic changes that are important for recreational beach tourism. Future climate conditions and projections of shoreline changes due to sea-level rise were estimated using ensembles of 14 and 21 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) specific to recreational beach use was used to assess historical and future climatic suitability while beach loss area was used to quantify physical changes to beach conditions. Diminished beaches with improved climate conditions were observed at all sites except Yonehara, which had both diminished beach and climate conditions. Comparing HCI:Beach scores relative to historical conditions revealed a change of −2.4 to +10%, while beach losses were typically >60%. These results highlight that beach tourism suitability at the study sites will likely exhibit greater changes due to sea-level rise, compared to those driven by changing atmospheric conditions.