Abstract
The drastic fluctuations in SP500 caused by the epidemic have become one of the topics of concern in the academic field. When analyzing and forecasting time series, many classic models of forecasting were widely used, including the exponential smoothing model, ETS, and ARIMA model. This article focuses on testing the effectiveness of these models on the specific time series SP500, using the data from the year 2010-2021 to forecast the possible results in 2022-2023 and afterward test its accuracy. According to the results, none of the three models capture the tendency in the years 2022 and 2023 well. This may be due to the abnormal plunge in 2022, which was never been observed before. At last, some possible accountabilities, including the influence of COVID-19, are provided to explain such a phenomenon. This study expands the application scope of the ARIMA model and has certain practical significance for the development of the stock market.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
