Comparing Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessment at a Coking Plant Site in China

Abstract

Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and deterministic risk assessment (DRA) at a coking plant site were compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient (HQ) following exposure to Naphthalene (Nap) and Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) following exposure to Benzo(a)pyrene (Bap) are 1.87 and 2.12×10-4. PRA reveals valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and the outputs show that Nap HQ ranges from 6.18×10-7to 6.62 and Bap ILCR ranges from 8.67×10-10to 6.89×10-4. Risk estimates of DRA locates at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, indicating the DRA overestimates the risk. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating a contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it is found that contaminant concentration in the soil (Cs), exposure duration (ED), soil ingestion rate (IRs) are the most important parameters for risk calculations