Abstract

A data-driven index of dementia risk based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), the Alzheimer's Disease Pattern Similarity (AD-PS) score, was estimated for participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. AD-PS scores were generated for 839 cognitively non-impaired individuals with a mean follow-up of 4.86 years. The scores and a hypothesis-driven volumetric measure based on several brain regions susceptible to AD were compared as predictors of incident cognitive impairment in different settings. Logistic regression analyses suggest the data-driven AD-PS scores to be more predictive of incident cognitive impairment than its counterpart. Both biomarkers were more predictive of incident cognitive impairment in participants who were White, female, and apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) ε4 carriers. Random forest analyses including predictors from different domains ranked the AD-PS scores as the most relevant MRI predictor of cognitive impairment. Overall, the AD-PS scores were the stronger MRI-derived predictors of incident cognitive impairment in cognitively non-impaired individuals.

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