Comparing Approximate Bayesian Computation with the Poisson-Likelihood Method for Exoplanet Occurrence Rates

Abstract

Abstract We present Kepler exoplanet occurrence rates inferred with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). By using the same planet catalog, stellar sample, and characterization of completeness and reliability as Bryson et al. (2020), we are able to provide the first direct comparison of results from ABC to those derived with the popular Poisson-likelihood method. For planets with orbital periods between 50 and 400 days and radii between 0.75 and 2.5 R ⊕, we find an integrated occurrence rate F 0 = 0.596 − 0.099 + 0.092 planets per GK dwarf star. After correcting for reliability against astrophysical false positives and false alarms, we find F 0 = 0.421 − 0.072 + 0.086 . Our findings agree within 1σ of Bryson et al. (2020), indicating that the results are robust and not method-dependent.