Comparative time series analysis of Anatolian water buffalo stock in Türkiye

Abstract

Water buffalo holds an important place in the livestock heritage in Türkiye. In the current study, buffalo numbers between 2023 and 2032 were estimated by using buffalo number data from 1991 to 2022. In the study, FAOSTAT data between 1961 and 2021 and TÜİK data for 2022 were used to obtain the time series. ARIMA modeling method was used in the study conducted in R programming language. ARIMA is a time series model that can make predictions from time series based on explaining univariate data. According to the results of the analysis made in the study, it is seen that the number of buffaloes in Türkiye will continue to decrease. According to the results obtained, it is estimated that the number of buffaloes will be 157,755 heads in 2023, 96,851 heads in 2027 and 19,136 heads in 2032. The disease resistance of buffaloes, their high adaptability, the high demand for water buffalo products, the preference for high-yielding cows for milk production despite government support payments, increasing mechanization, the reduction of buffalo habitats and the increase in input costs have led to a decline in Anatolian water buffalo populations. To prevent the Anatolian water buffalo from being threatened with extinction, the population decline must be halted and improved. To ensure this, the decline of the pastures that form the buffalo’s habitat must be halted, pasture areas must be increased, and existing pastures rehabilitated, government subsidies for buffalo and calf rearing must be increased and market opportunities for buffalo products must be expanded.