Abstract
Hydrological frequency analysis plays an indispensable role in the construction of national flood control projects. This study selects the stations with the smallest and largest discordances in the nine homogeneous regions of Sichuan Province as the representative stations, and results obtained by regional frequency analysis are compared with those obtained by traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis. The results showed that the optimal frequency distribution of each representative station obtained by traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis and the ones of corresponding homogeneous regions obtained by regional frequency analysis were not necessarily consistent, which was related to the site and homogeneous regions. At the same time, there were also differences between the fitting of the theoretical rainstorm frequency curve obtained by the two methods and the observation. In general, in each homogeneous region, the results obtained by regional frequency analysis and traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis at the stations with the largest frequency analysis were quite different. The design values obtained by the two methods were also increasingly different with the increase of the return period. The study has specific reflections on the differences between regional frequency analysis and traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis.
Highlights
Natural disasters cause serious losses to society and the economy, and the occurrence of flood disasters has the greatest impact on society [1]
The results show that when the optimal frequency distribution was determined by Monte Carlo simulation for each representative station selected in the study, the optimal frequency distribution of each station was not necessarily the same as the optimal frequency distribution of the corresponding homogeneous region
In this paper we showed that, according to regional frequency analysis and traditional at-site hydrological frequency analysis, the optimal frequency distribution of the single station obtained by
Summary
Natural disasters cause serious losses to society and the economy, and the occurrence of flood disasters has the greatest impact on society [1]. Hydrological frequency analysis is a scientific criterion for assessing natural disasters, especially water disasters caused by extreme hydrological events [2]. Probability theory and mathematical statistics methods are used to make “probability estimations” for future hydrological situations, so as to obtain hydrological design values under different return periods. The hydrological design value obtained by a hydrological frequency analysis of flood data or flow data can provide a safety standard for the construction of flood control projects [4]. Due to the limited flood data or flow data in actual projects, the use of rainfall data to indirectly design floods has become a necessary method. Precipitation in China is extremely uneven in time scale and spatial scale, with obvious seasonal and regional changes and inter-annual differences [5], which has frequently caused floods in China. Research on rainfall is of great significance to the construction of flood control
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