Comparative Study of Pipeline Deliverables using Deterministic and Stochastic Models

Abstract

This study aim to proffer solution to the factors causing delay is pipeline construction project deliverables, it compared deterministic model (variable with certainty) and stochastic model (variable with uncertainty), with Six (6) planned project schedules of Brownfield Energy Service Limited for pipeline construction. Time assigned to critical activities, identified from a network analysis, with the aid of the Critical Path Method, expected mean time, both deterministic and stochastic duration was calculated. Program Evaluation Review Techniques (PERT), the variance and standard deviation of the critical activities were also calculated. The probability of completion of a project within a given period was gotten with PERT. Comparing the results for deterministic duration 60 days to 79 days, which is 50% compared to 64%. It was concluded that stochastic model is preferable when scheduling and executing pipeline construction projects, because uncertainties are factored into the planning and scheduling process including delays. Delays during execution stage, occurs mainly due to community related issues, equipment failures, change in job scope and work- men antics but not limited to these. This study advocates elimination of causes of delay, especially before and during project execution phase. It also suggested that every project schedule should follow an order of precedents, prerequisite, and management involvement and cooperation at all stages of the project