Abstract
With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. This paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network. Applying a network method, we analyze and compare the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both networks. With a thorough interpretation and visualization of the network density, network centrality, trade communities, and influencing factors of both networks in the three time sections of 2005, 2010, and 2015, we come to the following findings: (1) the connectivity of both networks has been greatly enhanced, reflecting a more integrated regional economy. (2) The center-external structure of both networks has been further strengthened and the polarization of the VAT network is more obvious than that of the trade network. (3) The organizations of trade communities and VAT communities are largely different. Specifically, China rapidly increased its core position in the VAT network and incorporated more and more countries into its VAT community. (4) The underlying factors have similar impacts on both networks. While the growth of regional economic size and free trade agreements will enhance both trade and VAT, the economic gaps and population differences among the “Belt and Road” countries will prohibit regional economic ties. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions on further regional economic cooperation by taking advantage of China’s core position to promote regional VAT, construct broad trade channels, and enhance trade governance.
Highlights
With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. is paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network
We can see that the density of both of the trade network and the VAT network increased at each stage from 2005 to 2015, and the weight of the edge became significantly larger
Considering the high correlation of the network data, we draw on the Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) method for regression to avoid the influence from the multicollinearity of variables. e QAP regression method does not make strict requirements on the independence between variables. e purpose of QAP regression is to explore the regression relationship between multiple explanatory variable matrices and one explained variable matrix and to evaluate the regression results based on the regression coefficient and the regression fitted value R2
Summary
With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. is paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the “Belt and Road” by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the “Belt and Road” countries and comparing it with the trade network. Rough analyzing the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both trade network and VAT network of the BRI region, we try to fully interpret the development and change of trade among the BRI countries and propose pertinent suggestions for Complexity future regional trade cooperation and production connection. Taking the overall BRI trade network as the research object, scholars analyze the evolutionary characteristics of the network structure, changes in trade communities, and carry out an in-depth description of the BRI trade network in recent years [16, 17]. On this basis, Chong et al [18] discussed the forming factors and influence of proximity, culture, and institutions on the structure of the BRI trade network. Focusing on the manufacturing VAT network of the BRI countries, scholars found a rapid growth trend after 2003, largely influenced by the regional trade agreement relationship and the increase in economic aggregates [30]
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