Abstract
In this paper a comparative risk assessment of the exploitation of old and new ash disposal sites in Kostolac is given. Risk assessment is carried out according to the FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) method in combination with a risk matrix, which includes a detailed elaboration of potential accident scenario at disposal sites and analysis of consequences that accident can cause. As a potential accident scenario only hydrological scenario is taken into consideration, which is based on the influx of large amounts of precipitation, the cause of the largest number of accidents at industrial disposal sites. Analyses of environmental consequences, potential human losses and economic consequences are given. According to the risk matrix it is found that both of disposal sites are in the 'blue' zone of risk, which is interpreted as a tolerable level of risk, although the new disposal site is still in a better position than the old one because the expected level of risk is lower by one degree.
Highlights
Risk assessment is carried out according to the FMEA
which includes a detailed elaboration of potential accident scenario at disposal sites and analysis
As a potential accident scenario only hydrological scenario is taken into consideration
Summary
Kroz središte područja prolazi pruga normalnog koloseka, Požarevac-Kostolac, preko koje je područje povezano sa celom zemljom. Da bi se posledice što realnije procenile, potrebno je proceniti koliko bi hidromešavine isteklo pri havariji i koju bi ona distancu prešla. Na bazi nekog opšteg zaključka, a za potrebe ovog rada, usvaja se da bi rušenje nasipa bio kratkotrajan proces, isteklo bi od 215.000 m3 do 630.000 m3 u najgorem slučaju, a u svakom slučaju zbog konfiguracije terena i položaja objekata oko deponije, istekla hidromešavina ne bi daleko odmakla, od 150-250 m. Ovakve vrste podataka za deponiju Ćirikovac nema, tako da je za procenu količine istekle hidromešavine uzeta opšteprihvaćena konstatacija prema [11] da oko 1/3 ukupno deponovanog otpada istekne, što u slučaju deponije „Ćirikovac“ iznosi oko 66.600 m3 hidromešavine. Što se distance istekle hidromešavine tiče, prema [21], za visinu obodnog nasipa od 0 m, kakav je slučaj na deponiji „Ćirikovac“, distanca je svega 5 m
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