Abstract
Hepatitis C is a major public health problem and measures against it require the development of a national strategy and concept of a prognostic model. This is relevant for Yakutia, as a tremendous region with extremely specific and severe climatic and social conditions that cause a high incidence of hepatitis C.Objective: to evaluate the effectiveness of various scenarios for the development of the epidemiological situation of hepatitis C in RS (Y) depending on the strategy for providing medical care to people with chronic hepatitis C.Material and Methods. The work uses the materials of official statistics of the Federal State Institution of Rospotrebnadzor for RS (Y) and information from the register «Chronic viral hepatitis in RS (Y). To assess the burden of disease, the main scenarios were analyzed using the dynamic Excel model.Results and discussion. RS (Y) is a disadvantaged territory of the Russian Federation for parenteral viral hepatitis, including hepatitis C. According to the register «Chronic viral hepatitis in RS (Y)», 14643 people are registered, of which with chronic hepatitis C — 7395, which amounted to 50,5%. The proportion of HCV infection in the group of people with cirrhosis is 44.1%, with hepatocellular carcinoma 59,3%, and 76% in the total structure of the dead. Implementation of the WHO scenario for hepatitis C will reduce mortality by 65%, the number of people with hepatocellular carcinoma by 66%, decompensated cirrhosis by 66% and reduce the overall incidence by 34% by 2030.Conclusion. Achieving the WHO goals by 2030 seems realistic when creating a regional strategy to eliminate HCV in RS (Y), which includes increasing access to therapy with modern drugs with direct antiviral effects, an interdisciplinary approach to the diagnosis and management of patients with chronic hepatitis C, specialties about the problem of chronic hepatitis C and the possibility of curing it.
Highlights
Гепатит С является важнейшей проблемой общественного здравоохранения и мероприятия по борьбе с ним требуют разработки национального плана стратегии и концепции прогностической модели
Hepatitis C is a major public health problem and measures against it require the development of a national strategy and concept of a prognostic model. This is relevant for Yakutia, as a tremendous region with extremely specific and severe climatic and social conditions that cause a high incidence of hepatitis C
According to the register «Chronic viral hepatitis in RS (Y)», 14643 people are registered, of which with chronic hepatitis C — 7395, which amounted to 50,5%
Summary
Гепатит С является важнейшей проблемой общественного здравоохранения и мероприятия по борьбе с ним требуют разработки национального плана стратегии и концепции прогностической модели. Цель работы: оценить эффективность различных сценариев развития эпидемиологической ситуации по гепатиту С в Республике Саха (Якутия) в зависимости от стратегии оказания медицинской помощи лицам с хроническим гепатитом С. По данным регистра «Хронические вирусные гепатиты в Республике Саха (Якутия)» на учете состоят 14 643 человек, из них с хроническим гепатитом С — 7395, что составило 50,5%.
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