Comparative evaluation of optimal Weibull parameters for wind power predictions using numerical and metaheuristic optimization methods for different Indian terrains.

Abstract

The accurate selection of the wind speed distributions is crucial for a better utilisation of wind energy. The Weibull distribution is most commonly used distribution and hence its parameters need to be optimized. In this study five numerical methods, namely, maximum likelihood method (MLM), graphical method (GM), empirical method of Justus (EMJ), modified maximum likelihood method (MMLM) and wind atlas analysis and application program (WAsP) and three metaheuristic optimization algorithms, namely, social spider optimization (SSO), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) are applied for estimating Weibull distribution parameters at three different locations (onshore-Kayathar, nearshore-Jafrabad and offshore-Gulf of Khambhat (GOK) in India and also comparison of numerical and optimization methods are employed to tune the optimal parameters. The accuracy of the methods was evaluated using three different statistical analysis techniques. As per the results, GOK has the maximum wind power density of 450.2W/m2 compared to Jafrabad and Kayathar. It was observed that among the five methods used for Weibull parameters estimation, WAsP method presented a better curve fit with the histogram of the wind speed. The results shows that SSO and PSO presents a comparably better performance than GA in the term of accuracy on the basis of closeness to converged solution.