Comparative evaluation of numerical model and artificial neural network for simulating groundwater flow in Kathajodi–Surua Inter-basin of Odisha, India

Abstract

• Development of groundwater simulation model is first of its kind in the study area. • ANN model developed for groundwater level forecasting in the study area. • ANN model provided better prediction of groundwater levels for shorter horizons. In view of worldwide concern for the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-wide modeling of groundwater flow is essential for the efficient planning and management of groundwater resources in a groundwater basin. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the performance of finite difference-based numerical model MODFLOW and the artificial neural network (ANN) model developed in this study in simulating groundwater levels in an alluvial aquifer system. Calibration of the MODFLOW was done by using weekly groundwater level data of 2 years and 4 months (February 2004 to May 2006) and validation of the model was done using 1 year of groundwater level data (June 2006 to May 2007). Calibration of the model was performed by a combination of trial-and-error method and automated calibration code PEST with a mean RMSE (root mean squared error) value of 0.62 m and a mean NSE (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency) value of 0.915. Groundwater levels at 18 observation wells were simulated for the validation period. Moreover, artificial neural network models were developed to predict groundwater levels in 18 observation wells in the basin one time step (i.e., week) ahead. The inputs to the ANN model consisted of weekly rainfall, evaporation, river stage, water level in the drain, pumping rate of the tubewells and groundwater levels in these wells at the previous time step. The time periods used in the MODFLOW were also considered for the training and testing of the developed ANN models. Out of the 174 data sets, 122 data sets were used for training and 52 data sets were used for testing. The simulated groundwater levels by MODFLOW and ANN model were compared with the observed groundwater levels. It was found that the ANN model provided better prediction of groundwater levels in the study area than the numerical model for short time-horizon predictions.