Comparative Epidemiological Assessment of Monkeypox Infections on a Global and Continental Scale Using Logistic and Gompertz Mathematical Models.

Abstract

The monkeypox virus (MPXV) has caused an unusual epidemiological scenario-an epidemic within a pandemic (COVID-19). Despite the inherent evolutionary and adaptive capacity of poxviruses, one of the potential triggers for the emergence of this epidemic was the change in the status of orthopoxvirus vaccination and eradication programs. This epidemic outbreak of HMPX spread worldwide, with a notable frequency in Europe, North America, and South America. Due to these particularities, the objective of the present study was to assess and compare cases of HMPX in these geographical regions through logistic and Gompertz mathematical modeling over one year since its inception. We estimated the highest contagion rates (people per day) of 690, 230, 278, and 206 for the world, Europe, North America, and South America, respectively, in the logistic model. The equivalent values for the Gompertz model were 696, 268, 308, and 202 for the highest contagion rates. The Kruskal-Wallis Test indicated different means among the geographical regions affected by HMPX regarding case velocity, and the Wilcoxon pairwise test indicated the absence of significant differences between the case velocity means between Europe and South America. The coefficient of determination (R2) values in the logistic model varied from 0.8720 to 0.9023, and in the Gompertz model, they ranged from 0.9881 to 0.9988, indicating a better fit to the actual data when using the Gompertz model. The estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) were more consistent in the logistic model, varying from 1.71 to 1.94 in the graphical method and from 1.75 to 1.95 in the analytical method. The comparative assessment of these mathematical modeling approaches permitted the establishment of the Gompertz model as the better-fitting model for the data and the logistic model for the R0. However, both models successfully represented the actual HMPX case data. The present study estimated relevant epidemiological data to understand better the geographic similarities and differences in the dynamics of HMPX.