Comparative Analysis, Tools, and Questions

Abstract

This chapter returns to the overarching questions of this book, namely, how can national energy transitions be explained, to what extent do patterns of change align and differ in the transitions of this study, and how does policy play a role, particularly with innovations that emerged amid the transitions. To broadly answer, the four cases are comparatively examined here. The conceptual tools from Chapter 3 are also elaborated based on the findings. Implications of the results are discussed, and will serve as a basis for further discussion in Chapter 9 on how to think about energy transitions as a planner, decision-maker, and researcher. Among the more significant findings are the following. Greater energy substitution (in relative terms) occurred initially within the countries that extended or repurposed existing energy systems versus the country (i.e., Denmark) that developed a new energy system from a nearly non-existent one. Cost improvements were evident in all cases; however, a number of caveats are worth noting. Among the energy technologies and their services that were studied, only Icelandic geothermal-based heating was competitive in its home market in the 1970s; nonetheless, the remaining energy technologies that were studied later became cost competitive. As the national industries of this book became globally recognized, increases in the quality of living within the given countries also occurred, as gauged by the Human Development Index (HDI). With respect to timescales, substantial energy transitions were evident in all cases within a period of 15 years or less. In terms of technology complexity, this attribute was not a confounding barrier to change. Finally, government was instrumental to change, but not always the driver. There are countless ways to compare national energy transitions. This section illustrates ways of doing so, first by describing broadly observed, socio-technical patterns with the tool typologies outlined in Chapter 3. A discussion of tool refinement follows. The section then turns to more systematically assess key, qualitative and quantitative dimensions of the four transition cases.