Abstract
Currently, the privileged position of wind energy producers is being weakened by their enforced participation in the market on equal terms. This requires accurate production forecasting. The main aim of this study is to comparatively examine the wind generation forecasts in Poland and Portugal, as well as to verify their influence on the day-ahead market prices. The statistical analysis revealed significant deviations of the forecasted and actual wind production in both countries, which referred to the corresponding spot and balancing prices caused considerable financial losses by the wind energy suppliers. In this paper, the influence of the wind generation forecasts on the spot prices has been examined through developed the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA), ARMA with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) and non-linear auto-regressive neural network (NAR), NAR with exogenous inputs (NARX)artificial neural network (ANN) models. The results have shown that the usability of the information of forecasted wind generation is not unequivocal in models developed for spot prices in Poland, mainly because of the randomness and volatility of recorded wind generation forecasts. However, in the case of Portugal, the forecasted wind generation occurred to be a valuable input in spot prices models, which results in an improvement in the models’ accuracy.
Highlights
Sustainable development of contemporary power system towards systems based on renewable energy sources (RES) requires facing some problems
The inaccuracy, of for instance wind generation forecasts, entails consequences of two primary natures: (i) technical—divergence of the forecasts around planned RES generation which impedes the transmission system operators’ (TSOs) ability to properly and accurately plan the fulfilment of actual demand by available power capacity; and (ii) economical—the uncertainty of the total forecasted wind power supply translates into the uncertainty of the day-ahead and balancing market prices, which can result in financial losses of the market participants
The analysis of wind power forecasts has been made by combining day-ahead wind generation forecasts and actual data, which has published by the ENTSO-E platform in hourly time steps
Summary
Sustainable development of contemporary power system towards systems based on renewable energy sources (RES) requires facing some problems. These problems are mainly related to the inherent difficulty in predicting the availability of RES at a given time. This problem is made more difficult with the time-variation of the load and volatility of energy prices on the wholesale markets. The inaccuracy, of for instance wind generation forecasts, entails consequences of two primary natures: (i) technical—divergence of the forecasts around planned RES generation which impedes the transmission system operators’ (TSOs) ability to properly and accurately plan the fulfilment of actual demand by available power capacity; and (ii) economical—the uncertainty of the total forecasted wind power supply translates into the uncertainty of the day-ahead and balancing market prices, which can result in financial losses of the market participants.
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