Comparative analysis of UK net-zero scenarios: The role of energy demand reduction

Abstract

Final energy demand in the UK has remained relatively constant since the 1970s. However, most of the scenarios that model pathways to achieve the UK's net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 indicate that energy demand reduction (EDR) will be an important pillar of climate change mitigation. Despite this, the UK Government has no clearly defined strategy to reduce demand. This comparative analysis explores the role of EDR across twelve UK-based climate scenarios from four organisations that estimate changes in carbon emission and energy consumption from 2020 to 2050. We focus on changes in final demand across the economy, assessing the scale of ambition and the implications for the rest of the energy system in the context of net-zero. All the pathways explored achieve reductions of at least 32.8% in total final energy demand from 2020 to 2050, suggesting that this is the minimum level of demand reduction required to achieve the development and rollout of the supply side technologies necessary to decarbonise the energy system. Reductions in total final demand of up to 52% are demonstrated. We find that pathways with higher levels of EDR mitigate against technological challenges, such as scaling up renewable energy capacities, are less reliant on carbon-dioxide removal technologies and require less investment – but are characterised by higher levels of social change.