Comparative Analysis of the Growth Factors of Regional Tourism Industry by Shift-Share Analysis in Japan

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to clarify the differences in growth factors between the regions with the highest growth rate and the regions with the lowest growth rate on the tourism industry by shift-share analysis in Japan. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, the index of the industrial sectors used the “Tourist Entry Statistics” based on the Japan Tourism Agency’s “Common Standards for Tourist Entry Statistics”. The analysis period is from 2014 to 2017 considering the lack of time series data. The selection of region is based on the growth rate of tourists during the analysis period, Ibaraki and Shiga Prefecture which are the highest growth rate, and Shimane and Tottori Prefecture which are negative growth rate in Japan. Results: As the results of the empirical analysis, first, there are differences in the competitiveness of regions and factors that is closely related to the external economy on the tourism industry by regional effect (RSE). Second, it was found that although the effects of each region were different in terms of industrial mix effect (IME), they did not have enough to influence the overall growth effect of the regional tourism industry. Third, the magnitude of the total change effect (TCE) in the regional tourism industry revealed that the economies of scale exist in a comprehensive sense from the perspective of regional tourism policy and tourism strategy. Implications: The implication of this study lies in that it used a traditional shift-share analysis model to compare and analyze four regions in Japan to present regional growth factors and competitive advantages. And the limitations of the shift-share analysis model in the causes of regional competitive factors was supplemented by specifically analyzing the regional characteristics.