Comparative Analysis of Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory, Sparrow Search Algorithm-Backpropagation Neural Network, and Particle Swarm Optimization-Extreme Learning Machine Models for the Water Discharge of the Buzău River, Romania

Abstract

Modeling and forecasting the river flow is essential for the management of water resources. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of different models built for the monthly water discharge of the Buzău River (Romania), measured in the upper part of the river’s basin from January 1955 to December 2010. They employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) coupled with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, named CNN-LSTM, sparrow search algorithm with backpropagation neural networks (SSA-BP), and particle swarm optimization with extreme learning machines (PSO-ELM). These models are evaluated based on various criteria, including computational efficiency, predictive accuracy, and adaptability to different training sets. The models obtained applying CNN-LSTM stand out as top performers, demonstrating a superior computational efficiency and a high predictive accuracy, especially when built with the training set containing the data series from January 1984 (putting the Siriu Dam in operation) to September 2006 (Model type S2). This research provides valuable guidance for selecting and assessing river flow prediction models, offering practical insights for the scientific community and real-world applications. The findings suggest that Model type S2 is the preferred choice for the discharge forecast predictions due to its high computational speed and accuracy. Model type S (considering the training set recorded from January 1955 to September 2006) is recommended as a secondary option. Model type S1 (with the training period January 1955–December 1983) is suitable when the other models are unavailable. This study advances the field of water discharge prediction by presenting a precise comparative analysis of these models and their respective strengths