Comparative Advantage of Agricultural Trade in Countries along the Belt and Road and China and Its Dynamic Evolution Characteristics.

Abstract

Trade is an important means to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Target 2.1 "Zero Hunger", and comparative advantage can be used to explain the causes and performance of trade. This study measures the static distribution of agricultural trade comparative advantage in countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) and China by utilizing the Balassa revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, and further calculates its dynamic change by utilizing the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) index and the ordinary least squares correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) in the face of multiple unfavorable factors, the initial comparative advantage of most agricultural products at Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level in countries along the B&R and China deteriorated, simultaneously, but the initial comparative disadvantage of most and some agricultural products at HS 2-digit level in countries along the B&R and China improved, respectively; (2) the present agricultural trade comparative advantage in most countries along the B&R was higher than China and had a larger extent of change, but the current product structure of their bilateral agricultural trade was in line with each other's comparative advantage, indirectly proving the validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. Our research findings suggest that the agricultural trade comparative advantage in countries along the B&R and China need to be further utilized to improve agricultural trade performance and better play its important role in ensuring global, regional, and national food security.