Comparatiive Economic Analysis on Offshore and Land-Based Liquefaction Facilities in Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract This research examines the applicability of two possible configurations of LNG plants as a means of monetizing Nigeria's gas reserve. It involves an extensive evaluation of LNG technologies both offshore and onshore on an economic comparative basis. Economic analysis was performed on all quantitative data acquired from peer-reviewed academic journals, conference papers and technical reports. Feasible assumptions such as capacity of plants, life of projects and hurdle rate were adopted to enable a fair comparison without distortion. Cash flow analyses were conducted in relation to Nigeria's upstream natural gas utilization tax regimes as regulated by the Petroleum Profit Tax Act (PPTA). Economic yardsticks such as NPV, IRR, PI and PVR were used to rank proposed investments. Results from the deterministic evaluation were presented for offshore and land-based LNG facilities as a base case. These results were extended to evaluate the economic risks associated with uncertainties in feedstock costs, LNG prices, plant capacities, CAPEX and OPEX. Although all proposed investments ensure good profitability with respect to the deterministic approach, nonetheless risk assessment ranked the offshore LNG facility under PSC as the most preferable project. However, Nigeria's gas reserve and flaring practice purports a complementary application of both LNG configurations.