Comparable assessment of national GHG abatement costs

Abstract

This paper discusses the UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Project with particular emphasis on the national assessments of CO 2 abatement cost for developing countries. A methodological framework was developed and country studies were conducted for 10 countries. National marginal abatement cost curves for the short-term (25% reduction from baseline by 2005 to 2010) and long-term (50% reduction from baseline by 2020 to 2030) targets are presented and discussed. The cost curves for the selected countries exhibit a number of similarities. The paper examines critically how the main scenario assumptions about energy/GDP intensity and energy-efficiency improvement influence the assessed abatement potential and costs. The treatment of ‘no regrets’ options in the baseline and abatement cases is discussed in relation to a developing country planning context. The issue of comparability between assessments from different countries is addressed. Even with uniform assumptions (discount rates, oil prices etc) for the group of countries as a whole, comparability within the UNEP project is shown to be a complex concept which involves national differences in the projection of economic and energy system development and the use of different modelling approaches.