Commuting behavior and local population loss: Means of transportation to work as an indicator of urban decline

Abstract

Abstract Prominent urbanists have recently claimed that demographic trends and changing lifestyle preferences will generate population gains in communities whose built environments encourage non-automotive transportation. However, given increasing recognition of the frequent and often persistent appearance of population loss, we assess the converse: Do neighborhood-level affinities for alternative modes of transportation, which we term commuting culture, protect communities from population loss? Through an analysis of census tracts nested within the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, we test whether increasing use of alternative modes is associated with (1) population change and (2) changing odds of population loss as a dichotomous outcome variable. We further examine the interaction between population density and commuter mode choice on population change 2000–2010. We find higher utilization of alternative modes of transportation have different effects, particularly when examined across density levels. We find that bus use and biking are associated with increased odds of population loss in all but the densest neighborhoods, where walking is associated with decreased odds of loss. Light rail utilization, on the contrary, insulates against loss regardless of tract density. These findings should be relevant for planners and place makers promoting accessibility-first programs of neighborhood renewal.