Community-acquired pneumonia and its predictors of mortality in rural southwestern Nigeria: A-five year retrospective observational study.

Abstract

The predictors of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) mortality are important outcome measures in epidemiological studies and clinical trials. There is an observed paucity of data regarding the predictors of mortality of CAP in Nigeria. Few studies from the urban centres have been reported in the literature, with none from the rural centres. The objective of this study is to ascertain the clinical presentations, risk factors, and predictors of mortality among patients admitted for CAP in rural Southwestern Nigeria. A retrospective observational study using a data form and a standardised questionnaire reviewed the 176 patients admitted to Southwestern Nigeria hospital between January 2015 and December 2019. The data were analysed using SPSS Version 22.0. The results were presented in descriptive and tabular formats. A total of 176 patients were studied. Their mean age was 53.3±16.8 years. There were more males, 112 (63.6%), than females. The most common clinical presentations were cough, fever and sputum expectoration. The case fatality rate was 9.1% and its predictors were older aged patients [Adjusted Odds Ration (AOR), 4.135: 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (1.389-12.315); p =0.005], hypoxia [AOR, 11.118: 95% CI (2.607-47.405); p<0.001], tobacco smoking [AOR, 3.632: 95% CI (1.459-9.039); p=0.008], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [AOR, 10.111: 95%CI (2.370-43.139); p <0.001], and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) [AOR, 9.444: 95% CI (4.304-20.725), p<0.001]. The case -fatality rate was 9.1%, and its predictors were older age patients, patients with hypoxia, tobacco smoking, COPD, and HIV. This study strengthens the argument on the higher prevalence of CAP and its mortality in rural Southwestern Nigeria. The findings may provide an impetus for prospective research on these outcomes.