Abstract
Recent evidence suggests that most parasites can infect multiple host species and that these are primarily responsible for emerging infectious disease outbreaks in humans and wildlife. However, the ecologic and evolutionary factors that constrain or facilitate such emergences are poorly understood. We propose a conceptual framework based on the pathogen's between- and within-species transmission rates to describe possible configurations of a multihost-pathogen community that may lead to disease emergence. We establish 3 dynamic thresholds separating 4 classes of disease outcomes, spillover, apparent multi-host, true multihost, and potential emerging infectious disease; describe possible disease emergence scenarios; outline the population dynamics of each case; and clarify existing terminology. We highlight the utility of this framework with examples of disease threats in human and wildlife populations, showing how it allows us to understand which ecologic factors affect disease emergence and predict the impact of host shifts in a range of disease systems.
Highlights
Recent evidence suggests that most parasites can infect multiple host species and that these are primarily responsible for emerging infectious disease outbreaks in humans and wildlife
This report provides a conceptual framework to understand the ecologic characteristics of disease emergence based on between- and within-species transmission rates involving a potential disease reservoir population and a target host population
We outlined 4 possible cases of long-term disease dynamics in the target host and showed that these outcomes occupy different regions of a 2-dimensional continuum described by the net between- and within-species transmission rates
Summary
Recent evidence suggests that most parasites can infect multiple host species and that these are primarily responsible for emerging infectious disease outbreaks in humans and wildlife. We propose a conceptual framework based on the pathogen’s between- and within-species transmission rates to describe possible configurations of a multihost-pathogen community that may lead to disease emergence. We highlight the utility of this framework with examples of disease threats in human and wildlife populations, showing how it allows us to understand which ecologic factors affect disease emergence and predict the impact of host shifts in a range of disease systems. The outcome of infection depended on the sizes of the populations and whether they were able to maintain the pathogen alone This approach expanded the naive view that reservoirs are nonpathogenic, singlespecies populations and encompassed the complexity of pathogen-host communities observed in nature. We use a stochastic model to consider what characteristics of the hosts and pathogen define the dynamics and likelihood of an emerging infectious disease
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