Abstract
Ethiopia has experienced more than 10 major drought episodes since the 1970s. Evidence has shown that climate change exacerbates the situation and presents a daunting challenge to predominantly rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. The aim of this study was to analyze the extent and sources of smallholder famers’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change/variability in the Upper Blue Nile basin. We conducted a household survey (n = 391) across three distinct agroecological communities and a formative composite index of livelihood vulnerability (LVI) was constructed. The Mann–Kendall test and the standard precipitation index (SPI) were employed to analyze trends of rainfall, temperature, and drought prevalence for the period from 1982 to 2016. The communities across watersheds showed a relative difference in the overall livelihood vulnerability index. Aba Gerima (midland) was found to be more vulnerable, with a score of 0.37, while Guder (highland) had a relatively lower LVI with a 0.34 index score. Given similar exposure to climate variability and drought episodes, communities’ livelihood vulnerability was mainly attributed to their low adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity indicators. Adaptive capacity was largely constrained by a lack of participation in community-based organizations and a lack of income diversification. This study will have practical implications for policy development in heterogeneous agroecological regions for sustainable livelihood development and climate change adaptation programs.
Highlights
By applying the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)-LVI [26] at agroecologically contrasting environments, this study aimed at analyzing the livelihood vulnerability to climate change/variability for small-scale farmers in north western Ethiopia, Upper Blue Nile basin
We found that adaptive capacity was the most salient factor influencing overall IPCC-based livelihood vulnerability in the combined study area
Rural households in the Upper Blue Nile basin rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods
Summary
Adverse consequences of environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) on crop sustainability and productivity could affect farmers’ livelihood activities and lower their adaptive capacity [10]. The IPCC report emphasized that efforts should focus on enhancing adaptation, reducing exposure, and decreasing the vulnerability of small-scale farmers while enhancing their resilience to shock impacts. These interventions in turn should be informed by evidence of livelihood vulnerabilities [12], which are shaped by physical, economic, social, and ecological factors and processes [13]
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