COMMUNICATION OF RISK OF MORTALITY OF THE POPULATION WITH METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN THE CITY OF GANJA

Abstract

Research objective was to estimate possibilities of forecasting of mortality risk of the population on materials of meteorological supervision on the example of the city of Ganja. In 2012 the base of me-teorological reports and the statistician of mortality was developed, communication between them was studied by means of analyses of dispersion, correlation, regression and the table Excel. It was established that in days, when average daily air temperature was lower than the 10th centile (0.5-2.6ºC), the risk of mortality increases. For an assessment of communication of mortality risk and me-teorological factors, it is specified that regression analyses have to be more reliable. It was estab-lished that the average daily temperature and average monthly duration of sunshine are in the return proportionality with mortality risk; their communication can be expressed by more reliable polynom-inal regression equation. In climatic conditions of the city of Ganja at an average daily temperature 0.5-2.6 ºC, the average monthly duration of sunshine in range of 86-100 and 268-304 high mortality is expected. The optimum average daily temperature associating with reduction of mortality risk is in the range of18-25 ºC.