Communicating weather forecasts

Abstract

In our previous issue, Philip Eden (66: 325-327) expressed some forthright views on the communication of weather forecasts. We would like to keep that theme open and welcome readers' letters on it. Here we include a report by Alison Black on a recent workshop on the subject. How can weather forecasting, and particularly the uncertainty it entails, be presented to inform the public effectively? That was the question asked at an interdisciplinary workshop of researchers and postgraduate students from across the UK, convening to consider ‘Designing the Weather’ (on a record-breakingly warm, last day of September). The workshop, at the University of Reading's Department of Typography & Graphic Communication, was one of a series of networking activities, funded by the Arts & Humanities Research Council, as part of LUCID (Learning, Understanding and Communicating about Information Design). The theme was prompted by a research collaboration between the University's departments of Meteorology and Psychology and its Centre for Information Design Research. The workshop developed from briefings across the disciplines about the science of forecasting, systematic biases in people's understanding of probabilistic information and the potential of different media to convey forecast information effectively. A panel of members of the public, among them Reading University's energy officer (who is also a wind-surfing enthusiast), a keen gardener and a youth activity leader joined the workshop to describe their experiences (not always positive) of using weather forecasts. Some common themes emerged from both the briefings and the public input: (a) current, ‘iconised’ forecast presentations lack the detail that people feel they need to make decisions and there is some nostalgia for (although not necessarily full understanding of) older-style forecasting using isobar maps; (b) lack of clarity regarding the probabilistic nature of forecasts (and particularly the differing levels of accuracy achievable in models for 24-hour and longer-term forecasts) results in scepticism about forecasting overall; (c) memories of specific failures (the apocryphal hurricane of 1987 and the elusive barbecue summer of 2009) colour perceptions of forecast accuracy. One of our public informants commented I look out of the window in the morning, and that's always more reliable than the forecast. There seemed to be substantial opportunities for developing design responses. In the design development phase of the workshop, students considered how decreasing levels of confidence in weather forecasts over time could be displayed graphically; how a single icon for a day could be ‘unpacked’ in interactive media to show the relative probabilities and time sequence of all aspects of the weather; whether the different qualities of rain, sun or wind might be shown in ways that relate to people's experience (reminiscent of the Beaufort scale for wind) and with more relevance to individual localities than they are at the moment; whether the traditional weather map continues to be relevant in modern, interactive media; how the public might contribute to forecasts, using geolocation to crowd-source social forecast validations; how individuals might set their priorities for forecast information (for example a gardener might be particularly interested in rainfall, but less interested in temperature unless it varied significantly beyond norms, whilst a professional environmental office might be particularly concerned to track temperature fluctuations), and whether individuals might set personal alerts for particular weather conditions. Overall there was a sense that many members of the public are willing to engage with more subtlety in weather forecasting than is currently available. While simplified forecasting might be appropriate for casual viewing or rapid inspection, there is an appetite for educative, detailed presentation of probabilistic forecasts. Summing up the outcomes of the workshop, Andrew Charlton-Perez, who led the meteorological perspective, commented I think there is a fear of [providing more information to people] amongst our community because we think people need it presented very simply. But the members of the public who joined the workshop and those who participated in it think that would be useful. So that's something I can take back.