Communicating natural hazards: marine extreme events and the importance of variability and forecast errors

Abstract

Abstract Scientific knowledge has to meet some necessary conditions. Among these, it has to be properly communicated. Usually, scientists (mis)understand this requirement and believe that publishing their results in peer-reviewed journals is enough. Society demands the availability of information in other formats. This is particularly relevant when dealing with natural hazards, which affect the life and fate of human beings. Natural hazards and extreme events are becoming more frequent and energetic, and future scenarios sustain that this tendency will remain or even increase. Furthermore, in trying to explain scientific results to untrained members of society, scientists usually focus more on forecasts than on the prediction errors. Talking about our forecast limitations outside of academia seems shameful, rather than being a logical limitation of sciences and regardless of the fact that discussing limitations is not something of which to be ashamed. Using numerical modelling combined with field observations to predict extreme marine events we hope to show here that it is possible to be less cryptic. Also, the general public needs to know enough to properly deal with variability and uncertainties. Scientists have the ethical responsibility of communicating the uncertainties of our results to society because these limitations are neither obvious nor irrelevant.