Common sense investing

Abstract

In this paper, we describe Common Sense Investing (CSI), an interactive investment tool that uses a knowledge base of common sense statements in conjunction with domain knowledge to assist personal investors with their financial decisions, primarily asset-allocation. In interfaces that provide expert advice, one key problem is elicitation - how to ask questions that enable the expert model to make decisions, and at the same time, are understandable to the novice. The second problem is explanation - how to explain rationale behind expert decisions in terms that the user can understand. Many programs already encode expert models, but few have good models of novice knowledge, especially where broad knowledge of everyday life might bear on the subject. OMCSNet, a semantic network representation of the OpenMind Common Sense Knowledge Base, is the source of a wide range of facts about day-to-day life. CSI maps the user's goals, expressed in concepts from OMCSNet, to the expert's goals, expressed in technical financial terms. Instead of asking What is your tolerance for risk? where the user might not understand the concept of risk tolerance, we can ask, Do you usually have a lot of credit card debt? Aligning the expert's questions and decisions with common sense knowledge pertinent to the user increases the user's confidence in the ability of the system to meet their needs.