Common agronomic adaptation strategies to climate change may increase soil greenhouse gas emission in Northern Europe

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture, highlighting the need for adaptation strategies to reduce its impacts. Agronomic adaptation strategies, such as changes in planting dates, fertilization, and irrigation, might sustain crop yield. However, their impact on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is unknown under future climate scenarios. Using the LandscapeDNDC model, we assessed the effect of agronomic adaptation strategies (early sowing, increased fertilization dose, and increased irrigation amount) on soil GHG emission, yield, and yield-scaled GHG emission. A diversified crop rotation (potato – winter wheat – spring barley – faba bean) of a long-term experiment in Denmark was used for model validation. The adaptation practices to climate change were implemented for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5) and five coupled global circulation and regional climate models. The adaptation scenarios were contrasted against a baseline scenario under current management practices. Soil-related variables showed better model fit (refined index of agreement ≥ 0.38) and lower errors (mean absolute error ≤ 8.18) than crop-based outputs for model validation. A total yield of ∼29 (± 3) t DW ha−1, and soil GHG emission of ∼3.02 (± 1.39) t CO2e ha−1 (RCP8.5) were obtained for the crop rotation system under the baseline for 2071–2100. Early sowing and its combination with increased fertilization decreased the yield compared to the baseline by 6.1 and 4.8 %, respectively (RCP8.5). Conversely, early sowing with increased irrigation, and early sowing with increased fertilization and irrigation, produced higher yields by 2.3 and 4.0 %, respectively (RCP8.5). All the agronomic adaptation strategies increased soil GHG emissions (ranging from 4.1 to 17.8 %) as well as yield-scaled GHG emissions (varying from 3.0 to 12.9 %) (RCP8.5). The highest soil GHG emission was simulated for early sowing in combination with increased fertilization and irrigation. Our study indicates that soil GHG emission will increase in the coming decades and that the agronomic adaptation strategies needed to sustain food production may further exacerbate this emission.