Commodity Price Changes and Their Impacts on Poverty in Developing Countries: the Brazilian Case

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to provide an estimative of the impacts that changes in international prices of agricultural commodities will have on income distribution and poverty in Brazil. To do so, a Social Accounting Matrix is constructed and applied, using a Leontief- Miyazawa type model framework. The SAM is defined for 40 products, being 17 raw agricultural products, 15 agricultural processed products, 3 industrial agricultural inputs, 2 other industrial products, trade, transport, and services. Households are allocated to 10 groups, being 6 agricultural (4 types of family farmers, commercial farmers, and agricultural labor), and 4 urban (income quartiles). Demand elasticities (price and income) for the products defined in the SAM are considered, as well as limitations on the supply of agricultural inputs. The knowledge of the possible impacts of changes in international commodity prices on income distribution and poverty is very important for policy design within developing countries. Given the estimated impacts on different groups of producers, different sorts of cushioning policies can be designed.