Abstract
Winter storm Uri impacted large swaths of the Continental United States, including the State of Texas, over the period Feb. 13–Feb. 17, 2021. This research attempts to discern what the natgas and power commodity markets are anticipating for Texas for the First Quarter of 2023. The research begins with a retrospective to Feb. 2022 and how the prices of in-State natgas and power prices, relative to their respective ceteris paribus non-freeze benchmarks, exhibited concern over the recurrence of Feb. 2021 in 2022. Next, using prices observed in May 2022 prospectively to Feb. 2023, a concern continues to be exhibited — in two Texas power prices, in Houston and North Pool, and in one of two Texas natural-gas markets — regarding the occurrence of a severe winter storm in Feb. 2023.
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